Illinois Senator Barack Obama is set to clinch the Democratic nomination for the Presidential election this November. He holds a comfortable lead in the delegate/super delegate count (a 112 advantage) along with a string of impressive wins in Primaries over the past fortnight from a strong and highly organised/active grass roots movement. This gives him an undeniable edge over his ever weaker rival, Senator for New York, Hilary Clinton. However in the process of getting the nomination and the bitter factional war between him and the former first lady, his election campaign may have been weakened and could subsequently snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Leading to another guaranteed four years of a Republican Executive and a disheartened Liberal America.
REVITALISED DEMOCRATS AND FACTIONS
The old popular anecdote of waiting for a bus, then two coming along at the same time is oddly reminiscent of the Democratic Primaries. After a revitalized party following the 2006 Democrat controlled Congress, fresh and challenging blood was thrown forward in the search for a rupture with the morose Bush years. The search for a figurehead to lead the Democrats and reverse the period of Democrat decline since the loss of the Congress in 1994, was in full swing once the novel and interesting line up of candidates was presented last January. Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton presented an opportunity for change, both being controversial candidates, for understandable and patently obvious reasons, though very different in approach. Since the shock of Iowa and the loss of it's air of invincibility, the Clinton campaign has been on a slow decline, however she has not gone down without a fight. Her highly competitive and ruthless campaign team, has torn into Obama on many an occasion and bred resentment for the Illinois Senator within her camp, which could defect to either Nader or McCain. Obama's support rests primarily on the middle class, independents and a youth base, the last of which is susceptible to being unreliable on election day. The importance of the Clinton/Obama feud is to assess how much of an electoral crossover we can establish between Obamaniacs and Clintonites, not to mention the effect of the McCain nomination.
CLINTON'S BASE
Clinton's base of mostly white collar and more conservative factions of the Democratic Party (though this is not more widely recognised) does not cross over naturally to Obama. Americans have a strong non- partisan tradition in voting behaviour and voting patterns, as the party system is primarily based around candidates not the party system or ideology. This is best exemplified by Reagan's Democrats in the 1980's which helped push through much of his agenda and the Senatorial Defections following the loss of Congress in 1994. Clinton also has strong support among certain minority groups such as Latinos and South East Asians, not to mention a strong showing among the black population, though that seems to have been eroded by Obama. The immigrant vote is likely to transfer directly to him. Obama does benefit from the establishment of a new party system post Bush, which gives way to a more polarised party political spectrum, the shift of the conservative democrats to a Republican base, has given the political parties are more defined idealogical framework (though compared to their European parties are still very weak). A democratic party which is more centred on anti republican feeling and a strong liberal agenda (Universal healthcare, troop withdrawal, end to 2001 Bush tax cuts,...) is going to benefit Obama.
THE COMEBACK KID
The Crossover of Clinton votes to McCain, not to mention the interaction between the electoral bases of Obama and McCain is also interesting to look at. McCain is also quite an exceptional character in Presidential Candidate terms, beyond the bland and depressing accolade of being the oldest person to receive the GOP nomination, he is less conservative then the incumbent Republican administration, and his support eclectic. His main backing is Liberal Republican and he has a strong pool of support among Independents. He has a high crossover into democrat territory with political endorsements from the more Conservative factions of the Democrat Party (Lieberman for example)and is more appealing to white working class electorate then Obama, which means a strong showing among Clintonites. He also appeals to more conservative factions, though he does not have much weight in Evangelical quarters, his inevitable nomination of Mike Hukabee, ex-governor of the U.S. state of Arkansas, as running mate however should secure a certain amount of Evangelical support. Obama needs to draw the focus away from his obvious weaknesses: foreign policy and his disconnect with the more conservative forces in America (who still flex a lot of political muscle). McCain has a lot of advantages to draw from a resentful Clinton base, strong foreign policy credentials, a broad conservative base and an uncertain and inverted nation. In other words his kind of Conservatism is one which is reassuringly "American" unlike that Barack Hussein guy who wants to take the oath on the Coran, went to Jihad school and had a pot addiction during college.
It would be overly pessimistic to downplay the extraordinary nature of the Obama campaign and it's rather remarkable development over the last year or so. The benefits he can draw on are immense however he must make sure his support does not lose momentum or the Clinton base. I had my hopes pinned on a Clinton nomination but things have not played out rightly, the best thing one can hope for is an elegant bow out of the race by Clinton in the next couple of weeks, followed by a public endorsement of his candidacy. A offering to Clinton of a high profile cabinet or departmental post (Secretary of State?) would seal and ease up Clintonite support for Obama. His clinching of the nomination will be a victory unto itself but the Party base must not tear itself to pieces in the search for a candidate, and compromise it's chance to represent a broad and interesting expression of public discontent in the face of an overly conservative esablishment.
No comments:
Post a Comment