Ponderings on a Polarised America

Tony Fabrizio a Republican Strategist for McCain has said that

One strategy for McCain is (...) to make it not about micro-policy but about ideological differences. Given Obama's record, this will be easy.

This throws into light some very interesting occurrences which have happened in the past two weeks or so, which are the result of a paradigm shift within the American political landscape. The latter Clinton years, though rife with partisanship, as well as the Bush years were defined with the two main parties easily slipping into the same political territory. That is to say it was defined by, as many have come to call them, the Republicrats. This odd political breed though bitterly partisan are easily seen as sparring on similar territory. The Clinton 08 campaign as well as the Giuliani 08 campaign can be seen in many ways as the last stand of such politics. The failure of the Neo-Conservative movement has thrown this balance off kilter and has incited a Democratic Revival and Ideological emboldening, not seen since the mid 80s or the brief hysteria of RFK. However this time they might take it to the White House. Obama's nomination is historic in itself and his ascension to the White House would have unparalleled consequences socially, politically and economically.


Up against him is the eccentric, if not slightly schizophrenic, candidate McCain. Who has gone from being seen as a liberal voice within the Republican Party, as well as a possible running mate for Kerry in 2004, to a hard-line Republican. He supports the Bush tax cuts, which he once criticized, he has hopped into bed with the Evangelicals , he so loathed and has pretty much abandoned his green credentials which he used to tout. Though his personality change is not the topic of this post, it reflects the ideological polarisation of American Politics, which has been picking up speed in the past year or so. Though his candidacy lacks the momentum of the gargantuan and hugely grassroots movement Obama has assembled around him, his candidacy has been fired up in opposition to it. He intends to present himself as a Republican through and through, with small government, gun-ho and bellicose credentials to boot. When he delivered his speech on the same night as Obama's victory, his soundbite for the evening was "No you can't". Which echoes the clear Conservatism of this campaign.



The Democratic Primaries managed in many ways to incite this debate within American Society. With a woman and a African American leading the contest from early January, it started by in a sense establishing its "liberal" credentials. The populist leanings and bleatings of Clinton in the last months of her campaign, and Obama's soaring speeches which have been compared to those of Kennedy and King, also added to this. The party is now strongly defined by strong liberal leanings. Gone are the days when the Democrats were toeing Republican Party line. Whether Obama likes it or not the party has swung to the left, and in comparison to McCain he will seem like a big Government, pacifist and "progressive" candidate. His candidacy has become the archetypal liberal campaign, as Anne Coulter would say, and for once she's not entirely wrong.

The reason for this seems two fold. Firstly the party has rallied itself around a new and ground breaking candidate, who goes beyond anything the democrats could have hoped for. This is because in style Obama is personable like Bill Clinton, affable like Kennedy and revolutionary like Martin Luther King. He is void of the baggage of the past and is not divisive, unlike his opponent Clinton. And Secondly he also has picked up on a wave of discontent which has been born out of the Iraq war, the loss of disposable income felt by most Americans, and the recent antipathy towards the Republican Agenda after 9/11 (again unlike most leading Democrats, including Hillary Clinton). The dissatisfaction which most Americans now feel gives the Democratic Party an opportunity to be more radical as it were and possess what in 2004 would be considered an "unpatriotic" agenda. One last thing I believe that the drawn out primary season has helped the party to rediscover it's identity and to an extent expose fully the divisions in the party. Therefore it will be easier to understand and to an extent try and pacify the factions within the party. Unlike McCain who seems to have won, without putting up much of a fight, due to the lack of choice within a much more fragmented party. Which explains the sudden shift from McCain to Bush III, so as to preserve the disintegrating coalition of business elites and the religious right, which it can't seem to move beyond.

The debate is raging through American Society as the forces of Conservatism and Liberalism collide headlong, and the contest has galvanised huge swathes of the population. Some states which historically have always been "safe", that is to say defined by a political stripe, are up for grabs. Which again shows how this Primary season has unsettled and rattled the political and stale consensus of the past 25 years or so.

How will this play out? No one knows, since both camps are at about even in every national poll, though it would seem that Obama has the edge. Except for the poll published by FOX news which puts McCain largely ahead, but anyone with half a brain should take anything published by that network with a pinch of salt.

The independents and the lower classes are undecided and the election will clearly be decided on those two demographics. McCain and Obama are even with independents. But McCain is largely ahead with the lower classes, which is something Obama needs to work on, though clearly his agenda would benefit them more. This shows that this disconnect has more to with the colour of his skin and seeming elitism (since Clinton had the edge over McCain when it came to these voters). However should this fail it would be interesting to see if Obama's campaign which has been twinned with a campaign for registering the young and disenfranchised voters (who historically sympathise with the Democrats) would be able to cancel out this working class Republicanism.

Either way this injection of dynamism and energy into a political debate has to an extent helped America smash glass ceilings and the political stalemates of the past 8 years. This very public debate on issues of race, gender and morality, showed the world an element of maturity twinned with a renewed optimism which many felt had eluded America for a very long time . The election trail is going to be fascinating to watch.

The Presidency is Obama's to lose.

Illinois Senator Barack Obama is set to clinch the Democratic nomination for the Presidential election this November. He holds a comfortable lead in the delegate/super delegate count (a 112 advantage) along with a string of impressive wins in Primaries over the past fortnight from a strong and highly organised/active grass roots movement. This gives him an undeniable edge over his ever weaker rival, Senator for New York, Hilary Clinton. However in the process of getting the nomination and the bitter factional war between him and the former first lady, his election campaign may have been weakened and could subsequently snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Leading to another guaranteed four years of a Republican Executive and a disheartened Liberal America.

REVITALISED DEMOCRATS AND FACTIONS

The old popular anecdote of waiting for a bus, then two coming along at the same time is oddly reminiscent of the Democratic Primaries. After a revitalized party following the 2006 Democrat controlled Congress, fresh and challenging blood was thrown forward in the search for a rupture with the morose Bush years. The search for a figurehead to lead the Democrats and reverse the period of Democrat decline since the loss of the Congress in 1994, was in full swing once the novel and interesting line up of candidates was presented last January. Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton presented an opportunity for change, both being controversial candidates, for understandable and patently obvious reasons, though very different in approach. Since the shock of Iowa and the loss of it's air of invincibility, the Clinton campaign has been on a slow decline, however she has not gone down without a fight. Her highly competitive and ruthless campaign team, has torn into Obama on many an occasion and bred resentment for the Illinois Senator within her camp, which could defect to either Nader or McCain. Obama's support rests primarily on the middle class, independents and a youth base, the last of which is susceptible to being unreliable on election day. The importance of the Clinton/Obama feud is to assess how much of an electoral crossover we can establish between Obamaniacs and Clintonites, not to mention the effect of the McCain nomination.

CLINTON'S BASE

Clinton's base of mostly white collar and more conservative factions of the Democratic Party (though this is not more widely recognised) does not cross over naturally to Obama. Americans have a strong non- partisan tradition in voting behaviour and voting patterns, as the party system is primarily based around candidates not the party system or ideology. This is best exemplified by Reagan's Democrats in the 1980's which helped push through much of his agenda and the Senatorial Defections following the loss of Congress in 1994. Clinton also has strong support among certain minority groups such as Latinos and South East Asians, not to mention a strong showing among the black population, though that seems to have been eroded by Obama. The immigrant vote is likely to transfer directly to him. Obama does benefit from the establishment of a new party system post Bush, which gives way to a more polarised party political spectrum, the shift of the conservative democrats to a Republican base, has given the political parties are more defined idealogical framework (though compared to their European parties are still very weak). A democratic party which is more centred on anti republican feeling and a strong liberal agenda (Universal healthcare, troop withdrawal, end to 2001 Bush tax cuts,...) is going to benefit Obama.

THE COMEBACK KID

The Crossover of Clinton votes to McCain, not to mention the interaction between the electoral bases of Obama and McCain is also interesting to look at. McCain is also quite an exceptional character in Presidential Candidate terms, beyond the bland and depressing accolade of being the oldest person to receive the GOP nomination, he is less conservative then the incumbent Republican administration, and his support eclectic. His main backing is Liberal Republican and he has a strong pool of support among Independents. He has a high crossover into democrat territory with political endorsements from the more Conservative factions of the Democrat Party (Lieberman for example)and is more appealing to white working class electorate then Obama, which means a strong showing among Clintonites. He also appeals to more conservative factions, though he does not have much weight in Evangelical quarters, his inevitable nomination of Mike Hukabee, ex-governor of the U.S. state of Arkansas, as running mate however should secure a certain amount of Evangelical support. Obama needs to draw the focus away from his obvious weaknesses: foreign policy and his disconnect with the more conservative forces in America (who still flex a lot of political muscle). McCain has a lot of advantages to draw from a resentful Clinton base, strong foreign policy credentials, a broad conservative base and an uncertain and inverted nation. In other words his kind of Conservatism is one which is reassuringly "American" unlike that Barack Hussein guy who wants to take the oath on the Coran, went to Jihad school and had a pot addiction during college.




It would be overly pessimistic to downplay the extraordinary nature of the Obama campaign and it's rather remarkable development over the last year or so. The benefits he can draw on are immense however he must make sure his support does not lose momentum or the Clinton base. I had my hopes pinned on a Clinton nomination but things have not played out rightly, the best thing one can hope for is an elegant bow out of the race by Clinton in the next couple of weeks, followed by a public endorsement of his candidacy. A offering to Clinton of a high profile cabinet or departmental post (Secretary of State?) would seal and ease up Clintonite support for Obama. His clinching of the nomination will be a victory unto itself but the Party base must not tear itself to pieces in the search for a candidate, and compromise it's chance to represent a broad and interesting expression of public discontent in the face of an overly conservative esablishment.