Amid wide speculation as to whether Brown will win the next elections in 2010, I think the more interesting question is whether he’ll make them. Not because of some backbencher rebellion, embarrassing commons defeat or the possible announcement of leadership ambitions by John Denham or David Miliband, but because of the end of the British Union which has existed since 1707. Wendy Alexander, head of Scottish Labour, has made a U-Turn which would even make Harriet Harman blush. She has announced after months of deriding the idea and arguing against it, that she wants a referendum on Scottish independence. This is likely to happen in 2010 that is to say at the next General Election. The MP for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath may find himself unable to stand for the leadership of this Country, since it would simply cease to exist. Now, not only does he need to guarantee that his party will let him stand again, after the dire electoral performance last week and the humiliating loss of London to a buffoon, but he also needs to keep the country together.
Gordon Brown has known about the resurgence of Scottish Nationalism and the threat it represents to his leadership for a long time. This is why he can often be heard mumbling something about Britishness and his British Patriotism, not to mention the creation of a Britain Day. While most chuckle gently at this rather misplaced and slightly American form of Flag waving, Gordon Brown’s career and future as Prime Minister depend on it.However as with most of Brown’s vision and ambitions for the Country, it has not translated into a reality and the UK has never been so fragmented and divided.
That’s not to say that Alex Salmond is standing on some Hill, armed with sword and shield announcing the Freedom of his people, as a fatter and uglier version of Mel Gibson. However the ascension of a minority nationalist government in Edinburgh ,regardless of then Chancellor of the Exchequer and soon to be Prime Minister Gordon Brown, in may 2007, was a clear sign that Scots were not satisfied with the efforts of devolution under Blair and Brown. The loss of support Labour suffered in the 2007 elections was also down to the War in Iraq and Trident. The grip the Labour Party has upon Edinburgh and Scottish politics has been on the wane since its peak in 1998 after the Scotland Act. Membership to the party in Scotland has just about halved since Blair took office. It also has a weak position in Parliament due to it’s relegation to 2nd place, behind the resurgent SNP and is suffering from the collapse of it’s coalition with the Liberal Democrats. Brown’s grip upon Scotland has further weakened.
This was twinned with a rise in nationalism mostly because of a sense of economic independence due to the recent hike in oil revenue and the recent prosperity of the Economy. Add to this a Scottish Government, though a minority one, intent on defending Scottish interests and expanding it’s jurisdiction over certain matters: the Nationalist agenda has never been so alive.
The most interesting rift however is within the usually well whipped (forgive the expression) Labour Party. Wendy Alexander went against the direct orders of Gordon Brown in announcing a Party U-Turn on the idea of a referendum. Her intention was to deflect attention from the recent funding scandals within the party and finally put the issue of independence to rest, while at the same time distancing herself from the increasingly and depressingly unpopular Brown, which might give Scottish Labour a boost.
A seemingly more cooperative Unionist Labour could assuage the mounting support for independence. Recent polls suggest that support for independence is rising but still on slightly lower then opposition to it, which means Labour can still counter this trend. Brown’s plans for the creation of a regional Senate (similar to the Bundesrat) in the place of the House of Lords, introduces an element of Federalism which could satisfy a number of Nationalists. This on a backdrop of greater constitutional protection as European Integration intensifies and ideas for a bill of Rights become more concrete, both of which will naturally boost Scottish independence from the National Executive. Gordon Brown should also devolve more power in fiscal and welfare regulation to Edinburgh. These possible reforms could keep the prospect of a united kingdom and Gordon Brown’s Leadership alive.
The implications for Brown are great, that is to say that a lot is riding on the next election, and that the Labour Party might not want to risk going into it with Brown as leader considering his rather spectacular loss of support and the possibility of Scottish independence. His baggage might be too much for some within the Party to stomach. Blood is most likely to be spilt should Brown continue to fumble around and make a complete hash of his premiership (which seems quite likely). This of course is being played up by Cameron who now unfortunately speaks for most of England, and benefits from this peculiar phenomenon by protesting about the redistribution of wealth between England and Scotland and the right Scottish MPs have to vote on English matters (the West Lothian Question). The Conservative Party is not really interested in the preservation of the Union as it would be a decisive blow to Labour should Scotland secede from the UK and, thus increasing their grip on Westminster(since they are absent in Scotland)
Personally I think he and Harman should be given the boot (he has become far too much of a liability now) and John Denham step up to the challenge. Unfortunately not many miracles happen in British politics and we are likely to see a long, drawn out and painful end to Brown’s career as we all stand back in shock at how wrong we were about him. If he doesn't act now, his legacy is going to be an divided nation, a crushed Labour Party and another 20 years of Tory government.
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